MAJOR POLL RESULT – AT 8:01 P.M. ET:  Gallup has just released a major new poll measuring party preference among likely voters in next month's election.  That's really the only way to go at this point.  You want to know what people who are likely to vote think, not all people who happen to be registered:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's generic ballot for Congress among registered voters currently shows Republicans with 46% of the vote and Democrats with 43%, similar to the 46% to 46% tie reported a week ago. However, in Gallup's first estimates among likely voters, based on polling from Sept. 23-Oct. 3, Republicans have a double-digit advantage under two separate turnout scenarios.

If there is a high turnout on election day, Gallup estimates that the preference for Republicans would be 53% to 40%, an astounding 13-point gap.

And get this:  If there's a low turnout, the Republican advantage grows to 18 points, 56% to 38%.

Now, we stress that this is one poll, but it is the kind of survey that measures the so-called "enthusiasm gap."  What Gallup is saying is that Republicans are just more likely to go to the polls. 

This, of course, can change somewhat by election day as Democrats crank up the fear campaign and drag their base to polling places.  (If the corruption is as bad as usual in some cities, the Dems may drag the polling places to the voters.)

Gallup has found Republicans, compared with Democrats, expressing higher levels of enthusiasm about voting and more thought given to the elections throughout 2010. It follows that models in which voting is restricted to those most likely to vote would show Republicans doing disproportionately well.

Gallup cautions that races tend to tighten as election day nears.   I like where we are, though.

October 4, 2010